We care about two things: long-term profit and beating the closing line. 

Over 193 all-time bets, we've beaten the close 61% of the time—that's measurable skill, not luck, and it's far more stable than any one week's results. 

Why CLV matters: Beating closing lines proves our edge exists independent of results. If you consistently get better prices than the market settles at, variance eventually has to pay you. 

The setup: Market still sees “mid-table Palace away” vs “relegation struggler at home.” We see a big gap between process and table narrative. 

Palace's under-rewarded attack 

In other words: performances have been better than scorelines. 

Why Wolves are a fade 

Three edges 

Our take: 2% stake | +9.1% model edge | Medium-High confidence 

James McGill: “You're not betting on Palace ‘getting hot’—you're betting that a top-half process eventually looks like a top-half scoreline against the league’s worst team.” Member spotlight

HIGH CONVICTION (3% stakes) 

#1: Leeds vs Aston Villa AH +0 | Range 1.70-1.80 I 3% 
(23/11-2025) 

👤 James McGill | +7.4% edge 

Leeds have conceded 20 goals in 11 league games this season and sit 16th with a -10 goal difference, while Villa are in the top six with a positive goal difference. The stylistic matchup still suits Villa: they’re comfortable playing through a press and punishing turnovers in space. On the +0 Asian handicap (draw no bet) we get full win on a Villa victory and a refund on the draw. 

Risk: Squad rotation and a heavy schedule for Villa. If Emery prioritises Europe or rests more than expected, the edge narrows. 

#2: PSV vs NAC Breda AH-1.25 | Range 1.68-1.78 I 3% 
(22/11-2025) 

Peter Hayes | +8.8% edge 

PSV are top of the Eredivisie with 34 goals scored and a +23 goal difference after 12 games in 25/26. That’s roughly 2.8 goals per league match and again one of the most dominant attacks in Europe this season. 

Breda step up a level in class here. Our numbers have this closer to a -1.5 fair line at pick-em odds. 

Risk: Rotation. If PSV look ahead to Europe and roll out a softer XI, the ceiling drops—but they’re still clearly favoured to create the bulk of chances. 

#3: Sonderjyske vs FC Midtjylland AH -0.75 | Range 1.75-1.85 I 3%
(23/11-2025)  

👤 Jacob Nielsen | +6.7% edge 

Our Danish model continues to rate Midtjylland as a title contender and Sonderjyske as a relegation-fight side. Even accounting for home advantage, we make Midtjylland close to a full goal stronger on neutral ground. 

Model win distribution: 

The -0.75 line lines up well with that profile: we win full stake on the common multi-goal victory and only win half on a narrow 1-0. 

Risk: Classic let-down spot if Midtjylland are coming off a big result. Also some downside if the hosts sit very deep and FCM struggle to break them down. 

MEDIUM CONVICTION (2.5% stake) 

#4: Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen AH -0.25| Range 1.75-1.85 I 2.5% 
(22/11-2025) 

👤 Peter Hayes | +6.8% edge 

Leverkusen are still rated as a top-tier Bundesliga side in our numbers—elite in possession, pressing and chance creation—while Wolfsburg project as lower-mid-table. 

This is a classic “talent and process vs volatility” spot: we’re buying the stronger team in a small-line market instead of paying up on -1.0 or worse. 

Risk: Leverkusen’s schedule congestion and occasional defensive lapses can turn dominant performances into 1-1s. 

QUICK HITS (2% stakes each)  

All cleared our +5% EV threshold: 

#5: Preston +0 AH vs Blackburn | 1.78 (McGill) 
(21/11-2025) 

Lancashire derby where we prefer the defensive structure. Preston’s home shape under this manager is conservative and compact; Blackburn rely heavily on direct wide play and crossing volume. On the +0 Asian line we get paid if Preston edge a low-event game and refunded if it finishes level. 

#6: Auxerre vs Lyon AH -0.25 | 1.74 (Hayes) 
(23/11-2025) 

Auxerre’s step up in class shows most clearly in their defensive organisation—our numbers have them as bottom-tier in Ligue 1 for chances conceded from open play. Lyon have been inconsistent away, but their talent level is still significantly higher. -0.25 gives us half-loss protection on the draw. 

#7: Villarreal -1.0 AH vs Mallorca | 1.81 (Nielsen) 
(22/11-2025) 

Villarreal are one of La Liga’s strongest attacking sides this season and have already scored 12 goals in their first five home games—around 2.4 per game—while sitting in the top three of the table. Mallorca, by contrast, are nearer the bottom, averaging a goal a game overall and conceding roughly 1.5 per match, with a much worse record away from home. 

Risk: Mallorca can make games sticky if they score first and drop into a low block, but over 90 minutes Villarreal should generate a clear volume edge. 

#8: Real Betis -0.75 AH vs Girona | 1.82 (Nielsen)  
(23/11-2025) 

Betis sit fifth in La Liga with 20 points from 12 games and are scoring about 1.6 goals per match, even while playing temporary “home” games at La Cartuja during the Benito Villamarín rebuild. Girona, meanwhile, have conceded 24 league goals—the most in La Liga so far this season—and are 18th with a -13 goal difference. 

We expect Betis to create multiple high-quality chances against this defence. -0.75 gives us: 

Risk: Girona still have attacking threat and can turn this into a higher-variance shootout. 

#9: Crystal Palace -0.5 AH vs Wolves | 1.90 (McGill) 
(22/11-2025) 

As detailed above. We’re happy to have this twice in the sheet: once as the feature write-up and once in the summary portfolio. 

Total Bankroll Risked: 21.5%
Average Model Edge: +6.8% 

❌ BE CAREFUL WITH: Arsenal -1.5 @ Brentford 

Arsenal are top of the Premier League table with a +15 goal difference after 11 games, and the market will price them like it. Brentford, though, are mid-table with a neutral goal difference and rarely get blown away at home. 

Why we’re cautious laying -1.5: 

If you must bet this match, Brentford +1.25 at plus money is closer to our model’s value side than Arsenal -1.5. 

🎓 BANKROLL TIP: Why Parlays Kill Your Edge 

Quick example—three +EV bets: 

Straight bets (1u each): +0.24u expected profit
Parlay (1u on all three): -0.10u expected profit 

You went from +0.24u edge to -0.10u edge. 

Why? Bookmaker margins compound. Each leg adds another layer of vig. 

The rule:
✅ Straight bets preserve edge
❌ Parlays destroy edge 

⚽ Premier League
Liverpool have dropped to 8th with 6 wins and 5 defeats from their first 11 league games and have just come through a brutal run of fixtures with several heavy losses. The market still sometimes prices them like title contenders; be wary of laying big handicaps until performances stabilise. 

⚽ Bundesliga
We continue to treat large Asian handicaps with caution. Even elite sides see a high share of one-goal wins. In Germany we prefer backing strong teams on DNB or -0.25 rather than chasing -1.5 spreads. 

⚽ Eredivisie
PSV and Feyenoord again set the pace. PSV lead the table with 31 points and 34 goals scored; Feyenoord have allowed only around one goal per game, the best defensive record in the league so far. Overs still cash in the right spots, but blindly auto-betting against “weaker” sides on big lines is dangerous. 

⚽ La Liga
Real Betis (5th) and Villarreal (top three) are two of the more reliable attacking sides this season. Betis are scoring about 1.6 goals per match despite playing home games at La Cartuja, and Villarreal have already hit 12 home goals in five matches. Meanwhile Girona’s leaky defence has them bottom three—great for targeting when you want a favourite to clear an Asian line. 

📈 ALL-TIME PERFORMANCE (2025) 

Combined: 193 bets | Beat closing line 61% of the time 

James McGill – The Numbers Guy
Former quant analyst. Hunts statistical inefficiencies, xG regression spots. 

Peter Hayes – The Derby Specialist
8 years professional. Specialises in rivalry matches, tactical mismatches, Serie A/Bundesliga. 

Jacob Nielsen – The Continental
Scandinavian football expert. “Structure beats talent. Local knowledge wins.” 

See you next week with new plays. 

Bet smart. Beat the close. Build the bankroll. 🎯 

All bets are recommendations only. Bet responsibly and within your means.