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ODDSBRIEFING
Better prices. Selective bets. Clear accountability.
Issue 41 | Published 29 September | Fixtures 1–4 October 2026 | 10% maximum exposure
The biggest position on this card goes on the side that just lost. Germany had three-quarters of the ball in Augsburg and lost to a deflected shot. In Thessaloniki on Sunday a draw hands the stake back. Four positions, 10% in total, all on internationals, and three of the four return something on a narrow result.
Picks Summary
Match · kickoff CEST | Selection | Odds | Net floor | Stake | Analyst | Bet by |
Wales v Norway · Thu 20:45 | Norway −0.75 | 1.70 | 1.66 | 3% | McGill | Wed evening |
France v Italy · Fri 20:45 | France −0.75 | 1.71 | 1.67 | 1.5% | Hayes | Thu evening |
Spain v Czechia · Sat 20:45 | Spain −1.5 | 1.68 | 1.64 | 1.5% | Hayes | Fri evening¹ |
Greece v Germany · Sun 20:45 | Germany DNB | 1.72 | 1.68 | 4% | Nielsen | Wed evening |
Total · 4 positions | 10% |
Lines settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Odds are Betfair Exchange quotes supplied by our analysts on 29 September, before commission. The net floor is after your commission: if the price you can get, net, is below it, pass. We take prices early rather than wait for line-ups, because national-team lines tend to move on team news. Each selection below names the news that would stop us. If it lands before you’ve bet, re-assess; once a bet is on, hold it. ¹ Not before tonight’s Spain v Croatia and Czechia v England results. All times CEST.
Performance Snapshot
YTD +48.03% | 39 tracked weeks | 26 green · 13 red
Last week: +0.40%. One full win, one push, three losses. Profit of €40.00 on the flat €10,000 reference bankroll, before commission.
Issue 40 selection | Score² | Result | Bankroll P/L |
Austria −1.0 @ 1.68 · 5% | 3–1 | Win | +3.400% |
France −1.0 @ 1.73 · 2% | 0–1 | Push | 0.000% |
Nykøbing −0.5 @ 1.61 · 1% | 1–1 | Loss | −1.000% |
Roskilde −0.5 @ 1.70 · 1% | 1–1 | Loss | −1.000% |
Plymouth −0.5 @ 1.66 · 1% | 0–1 | Loss | −1.000% |
Total · 10% staked | 1W · 1P · 3L | +0.400% |
² Home score first: Austria v Israel, Turkey v France, Brabrand v Nykøbing, HIK v Roskilde, Plymouth v Burton. Results: [1–5]. Published stakes and prices: Issue 40. Tracker arithmetic is set out once, at the end of this issue.
What Last Week Taught Us
One position paid for the week. Austria’s 5% returned +3.40 points after two late goals turned 1–1 into 3–1, and nothing else finished in profit. Two of the three losses came from 1–1 draws, the risk Issue 40 flagged on Nykøbing: a −0.5 line returns nothing on a draw. France won 1–0 and the −1.0 pushed.
Two draws in thin markets isn’t a pattern, and we’re not changing anything because of them. The structural point stands, though. This week three of the four lines return something on a narrow result, and the one that doesn’t, Spain −1.5, carries 1.5%.
The Sharp Take
Greece v Germany
Sunday 4 October · 20:45 CEST · Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki · Nations League A2 [6]
Germany draw no bet @ 1.72 | Net floor 1.68 | Stake 4% | Analyst: Nielsen
Sunday night at Toumba, a home crowd still celebrating Greece’s first ever win over Germany, and a German side that had three-quarters of the ball a week earlier and nothing to show for it.
Why the price interests us. Before Augsburg, Germany were around 1.13 draw no bet and 1.40 to win outright. For the rematch they’re 1.72 draw no bet. Moving the game to Thessaloniki explains part of that. We think the rest puts too much weight on one result. On Sofascore’s numbers Germany had 76% possession, 15 shots to 8, five on target to one and 1.21 xG to 0.77, and Greece’s goalkeeper was credited with 1.45 goals prevented. The winner went in off Kimmich. Before that night Germany were unbeaten in ten meetings with Greece. [7–11]
The price test. At 5% commission 1.72 nets 1.684, so Germany need to win 59.4% of the matches that don’t finish level. If the draw carries 27%, that’s roughly 43 German wins to 30 Greek wins in every hundred games. That’s the bar. Our case is that Germany clear it, not that they clear it comfortably.
Why 4%. It’s the largest position on the card and the largest single loss, €400 on the reference bankroll. We size it there for two reasons. It’s the widest gap on the card between how far the price has moved and what the underlying numbers showed. And a draw, a live outcome against a side that defends this deep, costs nothing.
The case against. Augsburg wasn’t one-way traffic. A 0.44 xG margin is a narrow edge, and Greece created more than Germany after the break. They’re top of A2 on six points after a 94th-minute winner in Belgrade. Havertz and Musiala both missed Augsburg, and Germany are winless in four, a run that includes the World Cup exit to Paraguay. Both teams also play on Thursday: Germany host Serbia, Greece host the Netherlands. [9, 12–15]
What changes the decision. Net floor 1.68. We’re betting before Thursday’s matches. A German win over Serbia could shorten this and a Greek result against the Netherlands could lengthen it; we’re not trying to guess which, we’re taking a number that fits the case now. If Kimmich or Wirtz is ruled out before you’ve bet, re-assess.
The Rest of the Card
Wales v Norway
Thursday 1 October · 20:45 CEST · Cardiff City Stadium · Nations League A4 [16]
Norway −0.75 @ 1.70 | Net floor 1.66 | Stake 3% | Analyst: McGill
Why the price interests us. Wales have played two, lost two and haven’t scored: 1–0 in Portugal, then 2–0 in Denmark after six changes. Norway reached the World Cup quarter-finals, beating Brazil 2–1 on the way, and opened this group by beating Denmark 3–2. Haaland has 22 Nations League goals. [16–18]
The price test. At 5% commission a two-goal Norway win pays +0.665 on stake and a one-goal win +0.3325; a draw or a Wales win loses the stake. Break-even runs from 60.1% if every Norway win came by two to 75.1% if every one came by a single goal. An even split puts it at 66.7%.
Why 3%. Wales’ attack is the weakest unit in this match on current evidence, and a one-goal Norway win still returns something. It sits below Germany because a draw here loses the full stake.
The case against. Ødegaard took an ankle knock in the 2–1 home defeat to Portugal, and Sørloth misses the first four group games. Wales’ last three home games all ended 1–1, and both teams have scored in 14 of Norway’s last 15, which makes a two-goal margin harder to find. [17–18]
What changes the decision. Net floor 1.66. Bet by Wednesday evening. If Ødegaard is ruled out before you’ve bet, re-price the match rather than take any drift at face value: his creativity is part of the case, and a longer price after bad news isn’t automatically better value.
France v Italy
Friday 2 October · 20:45 CEST · Stade de France · Nations League A1 [19]
France −0.75 @ 1.71 | Net floor 1.67 | Stake 1.5% | Analyst: Hayes
Why the price interests us. France have six points from two away games under Zidane, 1–0 in Turkey and 1–0 in Brussels, where Olise came off the bench to win it late. This is their first home game of the new era. Italy missed the World Cup and lost 2–0 at home to Belgium before beating Turkey 4–1. France won the last meeting 3–1 in Milan. [19–22]
The price test. At 5% commission: +0.6745 on a two-goal win, +0.337 on a one-goal win. Break-even runs from 59.7% to 74.8%, and sits at 66.4% on an even split.
Why 1.5%. France have scored exactly one goal in each game and are without their captain. Two more 1–0 wins would each return half the profit, and the edge case rests on the home crowd lifting a side that hasn’t yet opened up.
The case against. Mbappé is out with the knee injury he picked up scoring in Kocaeli, Konaté has withdrawn and Zaïre-Emery is injured. Italy also won 3–1 in Paris two years ago. [19, 22–23]
What changes the decision. Net floor 1.67. Bet by Thursday evening. If Dembélé or Olise is ruled out before you’ve bet, re-assess.
Spain v Czechia
Saturday 3 October · 20:45 CEST · Estadio Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo · Nations League A3 [24]
Spain −1.5 @ 1.68 | Net floor 1.64 | Stake 1.5% | Analyst: Hayes
Why the price interests us. The world champions against a side at the start of a rebuild. Czechia finished bottom of their World Cup group with one point, then lost 2–1 at home to Croatia on Matchday 1 after being outshot 16–5 and out-created 1.84 xG to 0.92. Patrik Schick has retired from international football. Spain won 3–2 at Wembley and are on the longest unbeaten run by a European nation, a count that treats shoot-out defeats as draws. [25–28]
The price test. No insurance here. At 5% commission 1.68 nets 1.646, so Spain must win by two or more 60.8% of the time. No push, no half-win.
Why 1.5%. The −1.5 is the least forgiving line on the card, and Spain’s recent wins have been tight: five of their last seven came by a single goal. [29]
The case against. Czechia’s new coach, Santi Denia, won Olympic gold with Spain in 2024 and knows much of this Spanish pool from the inside. Spain conceded twice at Wembley, and this is their third game in eight days. [25, 27]
What changes the decision. Net floor 1.64. Don’t bet until tonight’s results are in (Spain v Croatia, Czechia v England), then by Friday evening. Heavy Spanish rotation announced for Oviedo is a reason to pass.
How We Make The Decision
Lines and stakes are our analysts’ calls. We aren’t publishing model probabilities this week. The break-even figures above are arithmetic from each price after 5% commission: they set the bar each selection has to clear, not a forecast that it will. The case for clearing it is the evidence in each write-up, and each stake reflects how much of that case survives a narrow result.
Each reference price is an analyst quote from 29 September. We don’t hold a record of matched liquidity at those prices, so treat them as reference levels. The net floor is the number that binds.
Bankroll Tip
On a €10,000 reference bankroll: €300 on Norway, €150 on France, €150 on Spain and €400 on Germany, a maximum loss of €1,000. Place each quarter-ball line as one bet at the full stake; the exchange splits it into halves for settlement.
Selection · stake | Best case | Middle case | Worst case |
Norway −0.75 · €300 | +€210.00 (by 2+) | +€105.00 (by 1) | −€300.00 |
France −0.75 · €150 | +€106.50 (by 2+) | +€53.25 (by 1) | −€150.00 |
Spain −1.5 · €150 | +€102.00 (by 2+) | – | −€150.00 |
Germany DNB · €400 | +€288.00 (win) | €0.00 (draw) | −€400.00 |
Card total · €1,000 | +€706.50 | −€1,000.00 |
Before commission, at reference prices.
Commission check. Net odds = 1 + (quoted odds − 1) × (1 − commission rate). At 5%, Norway 1.70 nets 1.665, France 1.71 nets 1.6745, Spain 1.68 nets 1.646 and Germany 1.72 nets 1.684. All four clear their net floors, but only just. If your rate is higher, re-run the sum before you bet.
One temptation to resist: converting Norway or France to −1.5 for a bigger price. That’s a different bet, and we haven’t priced it.
Sources and Price Notes
Prepared and published 29 September 2026 for fixtures on 1–4 October. Reference prices are Betfair Exchange quotes supplied by our analysts, not guaranteed executable offers. Check availability, account eligibility and stake limits before placing a bet. Selection, floor and stake decisions belong to Odds Briefing. Each numbered source below is clickable.
Tracker Method
Opening record: +47.63% over 38 tracked weeks, 25 green and 13 red, as published in Issue 40. This carries the published series forward. It hasn’t been independently re-audited, and rounding in earlier issues can’t be recovered here.
Settlement. Austria −1.0 won by two: 5 × (1.68 − 1) = +3.40 points. France −1.0 won by one: push, 0.00. Nykøbing, Roskilde and Plymouth −0.5: −1.00 each. Week: +0.40. YTD: 47.63 + 0.40 = +48.03%, over 39 weeks, 26 green and 13 red.
The tracker is additive, on a flat 100-unit reference bankroll, at published prices and before commission. It is not compounded growth or a reader’s balance. At 5% commission on Austria’s winnings, last week would have been +0.23%. On the €10,000 reference, cumulative published profit stands at €4,803.
Odds Briefing is published by FrontWave Media Ltd. Bet responsibly and within your means. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+ only.
ODDS BRIEFING · ISSUE 41 |
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